When the number of annual novices does not cover, not by a long shot, the number of deaths and departures. Which means disappearance is certain and not very far off.
The only certain figures are those of deaths and departures, the latter by the novice’s own will, during the novitiate or afterward, or by the superiors. On the other hand, no one knows whether a novice will complete his novitiate or whether, once ordained, he will continue his priestly career until death.
With so many unknowns, it is impossible to forecast anything in the long term other than the certainty of its imminent disappearance. For many years now, each year there are fewer than the year before and they are older. And when the average age of those who remain keeps rising, deaths will increase, thus hastening the end of the Order or religious Congregation.
Continuing to live as if that were not an ever-closer tomorrow only denotes a sick denial of a harsh reality that, whether one likes it or not, is imposed on almost all male and female institutes.