The Observatory of Catholic Citizenship and Social Analysis, in its report number 72, offers a severe X-ray of Mexico’s current state after eight years of the so-called Fourth Transformation. Under the title “Impoverishment and Degradation of Mexico with the 4T”, the document maintains that the country is undergoing a sustained process of economic, political, social and ethical deterioration, whose consequences are reflected in the daily lives of millions of citizens. The question that frames the analysis is direct: has the 4T served to improve the country’s conditions or has it deepened its crisis? The answer, backed by official figures and documented facts, is that Mexico has become impoverished and degraded.
On the economic front, the report stresses that the national public debt has doubled in eight years, rising from 10.5 trillion pesos in 2018 to 19.9 trillion in 2026, with forecasts of reaching 21.8 trillion in 2027. This indebtedness, described by experts as “monumental” and “catastrophic”, compromises the future of entire generations. The financial cost of the debt in 2026 reached 1.57 trillion pesos, resources that were not allocated to education, health or infrastructure, but to the payment of interest and commissions. Added to this is the stagnation of GDP per capita, which in 2025 stood at levels similar to those of 2017, reflecting a deterioration in families’ purchasing power. Neither social programs nor increases in the minimum wage managed to reverse this situation, Mexicans are in the same condition as almost a decade ago.
The document warns that the official economic growth projections for 2027, between 1.5 and 2.5%, are illusory. Without private investment, without international confidence and with a USMCA in crisis, the country remains trapped in a vicious circle: fewer companies, less formal employment, less tax collection and more pressure on public finances. The Observatory also denounces “fiscal terrorism” against large companies, interpreted by the government as distributive justice, but which in reality discourages investment and aggravates uncertainty. The alliance with China on re-labeled manufactures and the production of fentanyl for export to the United States are pointed out as factors that further compromise the economy and national sovereignty.
Political degradation is another central axis of the report. The Observatory describes a State turned into a “farce of operetta”, where republican institutions such as the Supreme Court of Justice, the INE and the TEPJF have been weakened or co-opted by partisan interests. It mentions the proposal to reopen res judicata, the manipulation of the right of reply in favor of public power and the resignation of key figures during the 2027 electoral process, all of them symptoms of unprecedented institutional deterioration. The document also denounces the participation of organized crime in previous electoral processes, never sanctioned by the authorities, and the attempt to silence those who label MORENA as a “narco party”.
Educational and ethical poverty complete the diagnosis. The report recalls that Mexico ranked 64th in the PISA 2025 test, with performance below the OECD average. The New Mexican School, influenced by Marxist and Chavista ideologies, is identified as responsible for educational degradation. In parallel, cases of corruption in the Armed Forces and in the family of former President López Obrador are documented, whose children and relatives allegedly took advantage of presidential power to obtain benefits in strategic sectors such as energy, telecommunications and mining. The Observatory describes this situation as an “ethical poverty” of public servants, which compromises the credibility of the State.
The analysis concludes that Mexico faces the consolidation of a “Narco-State” built by the MORENA elite in alliance with organized crime. This alliance, the document maintains, has handed over part of the territory and national sovereignty to criminal groups, which impose fiscal-type levies and exercise violence against citizens. In the face of this, civil society appears weakened, the business sector tamed, academia silenced, the Catholic Church in a neutral stance, the media co-opted and civil organizations systematically attacked. Only a few exceptions, such as COPARMEX, Reforma, Proceso or Mexicans Against Corruption, maintain a critical voice, although insufficient to reverse the degradation.
The Observatory’s recommendations are clear and appeal to citizen responsibility. First, carefully analyze official data to discern whether the country has improved or worsened. Second, socialize this type of analysis among other citizens, dialogue without passion and form critical consciences. Third, keep alive the hope that things can improve, but assume that this requires the commitment of thousands of citizens to reverse political inertia in the 2027 elections. The great battle, the document states, consists in deciding whether the Narco-State is consolidated or whether a process of recovery of national public life begins.
In short, report number 72 of the Observatory of Catholic Citizenship and Social Analysis is a forceful denunciation of Mexico’s economic, political, educational and ethical deterioration under the 4T. Its reading invites an exercise in civic responsibility: recognize reality, demand transparency and actively participate in building a more just and free country. The dilemma is posed and the immediate future will depend on society’s capacity to confront degradation and recover national dignity.
The full report can be read here.