In the midst of an unstable economic landscape fraught with political tensions, the Catholic Citizenship and Social Analysis Observatory published its report number 41, offering a severe and reflective diagnosis of the Mexican economy under the Fourth Transformation (4T). Inspired by the encyclical Gaudium et spes, the document urges directing investments toward dignified employment and sustainable well-being for present and future generations, deeply questioning whether the country is improving or worsening economically, what future awaits the middle and impoverished classes, and who the true culprits are for the course the national economy has taken in these turbulent years.
The report, structured into sections on facts, analysis, and an informative annex, identifies three key risks that define the current economy as a high-risk labyrinth, woven by the governments of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum between 2018 and 2026. First, it highlights an alarmingly stagnant Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, with an annual average of just 0.81% between 2018 and 2024, and only 0.6% in 2025 according to initial estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, more recent reviews adjust this figure: the IMF now projects 1.0% for 2025, while BBVA maintains a forecast of 0.7%, and the Dallas Federal Reserve reports 1.8% in the first half of the year. This low performance contrasts starkly with historical averages of 4.5% between 1934 and 2000, and 2.5% from 2000 to 2018, revealing an economy barely afloat thanks to exports, which accounted for 38% of GDP in 2025, totaling 617,677 million dollars according to the Bank of Mexico.
The Observatory attributes this weakness not only to external pressures such as tariff tensions with the United States, but also to restrictive internal policies, including what it calls «fiscal terrorism» driven by the Tax Administration System (SAT). Under the direction of Antonio Martínez Dagnino, allegedly imposed by Andrés Manuel López Beltrán—son of the former president and implicated in organized crime complaints—the SAT has taken on an interventionist role in companies’ accounting and financial movements, generating arbitrary abuses that go beyond legitimate collection.
Emblematic cases, such as the fiscal harassment against Ricardo Salinas Pliego’s companies or the controversial proposal by Minister Lenia Batres to reopen already resolved trials in violation of the «res judicata» principle, illustrate how this pressure suffocates private initiative and discourages investment, directly impacting employment, family incomes, and the daily consumption of millions of Mexicans.
This stagnation is not merely a statistical datum; it represents a human drama that exacerbates social inequalities, leaving the middle classes on a precarious tightrope and the poorest without effective safety nets. Secondly, the report denounces the systematic erosion of republican institutions, a process that paves the way toward an authoritarian and populist political system. Megalomaniac projects like the cancellation of the New International Airport of Mexico (NAIM), the construction of the Maya Train, and the Dos Bocas refinery symbolize not only the perversion of public investment, but also monumental corruption associated with organized crime. International complaints, including investigations in the United States on alleged ties between AMLO and drug trafficking, and the operation of cartels with «extreme violence» in states like Mexico, paint a bleak picture where the State intertwines with crime, similar to what has been experienced in countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, or Colombia.
The judicial reform and the elimination of autonomous bodies have undermined investor confidence, fostering a fiscal crisis compensated by excessive indebtedness and extreme tax collection policies. Sheinbaum’s «Plan México,» focused on strategic investments in energy, water, and transportation, promises to position the country in the world’s top 10 by GDP by 2030, attracting up to 100 billion dollars annually in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and keeping investment above 25% of GDP. Recently, the government backed 38 infrastructure proposals in collaboration with the private sector for 2026, including projects in renewable energies and highways. However, the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) warns of a flagrant budgetary insufficiency: the 27.2 billion dollars allocated for 2026 are far from the 46.2 billion needed annually. Without legal certainty, critics argue that only «crony capitalism» prospers, benefiting figures like Carlos Slim, who sees opportunities even in despotic environments.
Thirdly, the Observatory highlights the cultural weakness of democracy in Mexico, where a fragile civil society yields vassalage to caciquist and personalistic leaderships. This dependency is not limited to the most impoverished and least educated layers, but permeates even among business tycoons, willing to ally with a «criminal State» for lucrative contracts. Practices like fiscal huachicol, which caused losses of 809,324 million pesos (equivalent to 41,747 million dollars) between 2018 and 2024—almost double the cost of Dos Bocas—and fentanyl production for export, underscore how political power intertwines with illicit interests. Remittances, which reached 62 billion dollars in 2025 representing 4% of GDP, are devalued by the «superpeso,» with a real drop of 4.8% between July 2024 and 2025 according to BBVA México, affecting family consumption and exacerbating the vulnerability of households dependent on these flows.
Defenders of the 4T highlight advances in poverty reduction and macroeconomic stability, but the criticisms are resounding: anemic growth, public debt projected to rise for 2026, persistent insecurity, and revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement that threaten exports. Experts like those from Americas Quarterly point to dilemmas in PEMEX, fiscal deficits, and low productivity, while external challenges, such as possible tariff hikes pushed by Donald Trump and resource shortages, complicate the outlook.
For the Observatory, the crisis lies in the profound imbalances between the State, the Market, and Civil Society, an essential trinity for a democratic republic that has been undermined by capricious and populist decisions.
In its conclusion, the report calls for deep Catholic and citizen discernment, proposing that hope lies in the urban middle classes, educated in democratic values, to rebuild the Rule of Law and counter authoritarianism. Before a Mexico on the brink of the abyss, it is urgent to balance power, market, and civil society, far from the destructive populisms that threaten to perpetuate the economic labyrinth.
The full report can be read here: