While the Secretariat for the Economy speaks of a “favorable dynamic” and “significant recovery”, Specola's analysis shows something else: the deficit remains structural, improvements depend on non-repeatable operations, and they continue to live off selling assets.
In its latest analysis in InfoVaticana, the veteran Vatican observer Specola breaks down the Consolidated Budget of the Holy See and cools, with data in hand, the enthusiasm that is being projected from the Vatican's economic leadership.
The official discourse: “favorable dynamic” and turning point
The prefect of the Secretariat for the Economy, Caballero Ledo, speaks of a «favorable dynamic», while at the same time emphasizing the need for prudence, realism, and continuity to consolidate what he presents as significant progress.
According to the official version, it is not just about maintaining a balanced budget, but about «strengthening the Holy See's capacity to optimize every contribution received», thereby making its service to the Church's mission «more solid and sustainable».
The Secretariat for the Economy has published the Consolidated Budget for the last year as a possible and expected financial turning point, although the text itself acknowledges that it is a shift that will need future confirmations.
Specola reminds us that when we talk about these figures, we are working with “self-confession”, that is, with data prepared and communicated by the same structure interested in presenting the best possible narrative: «Whenever we talk about this data, we do so knowing that it is self-confession, more political than financial», he notes.
The key data: a deficit that is reduced, but does not disappear
Officially, it is claimed that the improvement recorded in 2024, with a reduction in the structural operating deficit from 83.5 to 44.4 million euros, is due fundamentally to the increase in revenues, which would have grown by nearly 79 million euros compared to the previous year.
This increase in revenues is attributed to several factors:
- Increase in donations.
- Positive results from hospital operations.
- Improvements in real estate and commercial management.
Despite this improvement, the Secretariat itself acknowledges that there is still an operating deficit of 44.4 million euros. In other words, they boast of a “change in trend” in a scenario that continues to be in the red.
Donations on the rise… but volatile and conditional
The trend in donations in 2024 is presented as an encouraging sign: after years of slowdown, the growth in contributions offers hope for renewed participation by the faithful and local Churches in the Holy See's mission.
However, Specola emphasizes that this increase cannot be read naively:
- Donations are growing, yes, but with high volatility.
- A very significant portion arrives earmarked for specific purposes, which limits their use to cover the general deficit.
- It is acknowledged that these dynamics can change over time and require ongoing reading with prudence and realism.
The “trick” of the surplus: extraordinary and non-repeatable operations
This is precisely where Specola begins to reveal what lies behind the apparent optimism. A significant part of the positive results in 2024 comes from extraordinary operations associated with the reallocation of the portfolio according to the new investment policy and the recommendations of the Investment Committee.
It was, in itself, a step considered necessary to align management with the new established criteria. But the capital gains generated in this process:
- Cannot be replicated with the same intensity in subsequent years.
- Reflect the natural volatility of financial activity.
Or, in plain language, as Specola summarizes with irony: surplus yes, but…
When we remove the “hospital layer”, the picture changes
To truly understand the data, Specola insists on a key distinction: it is necessary to compare the financial statements of 2022 and 2023 with those of 2024 in the context that excludes hospital entities, which constitute an autonomous economic sector and do not represent the ordinary management of the Curia.
Once this cleaning is done, the panorama that emerges from the official documentation is, in Specola's words, much more complex and in no way justifies the triumphalism of the official discourse.
The figures show a progressive improvement in the operating result, yes, but always in negative territory:
- 2022: –52.4 million euros.
- 2023: –46.5 million euros.
- 2024: –33.5 million euros.
This is a significant reduction in the deficit, but Specola insists: it does not change the nature of the problem. The deficit is structural and repeats year after year.
2024: improvement yes, but due to external and non-repeatable factors
Specola precisely identifies the factors that explain the 2024 improvement and emphasizes that many of them are not sustainable over time:
- Increase in donations compared to 2023, from 217.6 to 237.6 million euros, although with high volatility and a strong incidence of funds linked to specific purposes.
- The real engine of the improvement is the financial boom, with revenues rising from 45.8 million in 2023 to 71.1 million in 2024, thanks in large part to the sale of historical investments.
In Specola's words, what is happening is that “we have sold, and continue to sell, grandma's jewels to eat, and there are fewer and fewer left”. In other words, assets accumulated over decades are being consumed to patch current needs.
The 2024 budget itself explicitly acknowledges that these are one-off effects, with very little likelihood of repeating in the coming years.
Real estate spending skyrocketing and without convincing explanations
Specola draws attention to a particularly worrying data point: the increase in property maintenance expenses.
- 2023: 13.2 million euros.
- 2024: 24.2 million euros.
In just one year, this chapter increases by 11 million euros, without adequate justifications being offered or a parallel increase in the profitability of those same properties, which represent nearly half of the Holy See's independent revenues.
An apostolic mission without clear multi-year planning
Another sign of disorder that Specola highlights is the programmatic instability in the so-called “apostolic mission”. The budget allocation in this area changes priorities from one year to the next:
- 2022: a significant portion is allocated to communication of the message (23%), nunciatures (20%), and Churches in difficulty (20%).
- 2023: the priority shifts toward needy Churches, which receive 39%.
- 2024: a similar focus is maintained, but without a perceptible criterion of multi-year continuity.
For Specola, this variability reveals a lack of strategic planning: responses are made to unavoidable emergencies, but no structured project is evident in the medium and long term.
Insufficient revenues, unstable donations, and market dependence
In his final balance, Specola is clear: the Holy See has not resolved any of the underlying problems in its financial management.
- Independent revenues increase, but remain insufficient (around 217.8 million euros in 2024).
- Donations are essential, but unstable and increasingly conditional.
- Finances play an increasing role, exposing the budget to external fluctuations that are not controlled from the Curia.
Without structural reforms in:
- the personnel regime,
- the management of real estate,
- the revenue model,
- and the planning of missions,
the system—Specola warns—will remain fragile and dependent on variables outside the Holy See's will.
The official language: more narrative than analysis
Finally, Specola dwells on the language used by the official bodies, particularly Vatican News, which speaks of «positive direction», «consolidation», and «significant recovery».
For the analyst, these expressions reflect more the communication strategy of the Secretariat for the Economy than a truly independent analysis of the data.
In the face of the optimism being projected, the cold examination of the numbers—as offered by Specola—leaves a very different impression: a fragile reality is being made up, sustained by asset sales and extraordinary operations, while the structural deficit remains and fundamental reforms continue to fail to arrive.
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